Thailand’s tourism revenue will recover

Kasikorn Research Centre estimates the country tourism revenue could reach Bt1.2 trillion by year-end and a recovery in all markets could be realised by the fourth quarter.
The centre said Thailand’s inbound tourism during the first half of the year was adversely affected by many factors particularly from the country political instability and even some isolated natural impacts.
Four key negative factors:
• Anti-government protests since late last year;
• Natural disasters particularly earthquakes and aftershocks in Chiang Rai that undermined tourism in nearby Chiang Mai – being the most favoured tourist destination in the northern region – including heavy tropical storms along the southern Andaman coast;
• Bomb blasts in Hat Yai;
• Martial Law imposed by the army on 20 May and subsequent seizure of power. With the establishment of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) on 22 May, several countries issued safety warnings to their citizens in Thailand.
The centre said these four factors were responsible for the 4.4% year-on-year decline in foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand during the first half of the year. The first half year closed with 12.5 million arrivals.
However, it is expected that Thai tourism will improve during the second half of the year. The NCPO lifted the curfew nationwide 13 June, helping to restore tourist confidence. If martial law is lifted or reduced to a lower alert level that would also be a positive factor on tourist arrivals.
Tourism recovery could follow two scenarios:
Firstly, if relevant parties join hands in clarifying what is happening in Thailand along with promotional activities in potential tourist markets, it is expected that short-haul tourism will begin to pick up during the third quarter this year.
Secondly, if there are no other factors affecting Thai tourism during the second half of the year, it is expected that long-haul tourists – especially from Europe– will return to the country popular beach resorts during the high travel season in the fourth quarter. Such destinations can be conveniently reached by regular and charter flights.
Postive measures:
• Clarifications by Thai ambassadors to respective foreign ministries/international organisations on the situation in Thailand;
• Reports on the situation in Thailand to travel agents by key trade partners and trade media;
• Media explaining the situation and safety measures to foreign travellers and businessmen, plus intensive marketing activities in target markets, especially those with high purchasing power in Asia.
The centre said foreign tourist arrivals could reach 26.6 million this year, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year (versus the previous forecast of 4.7%), and generate B1.2 trillion in revenues, up 2.4% year-on-year.
However, the recovery in inbound tourism during second half of the year could be undermined by both internal and external factors, especially the country political issues that need to be closely monitored.
External factors include economic performance in foreign tourist markets, such as Russia, and instability in many countries that may have psychological impact on decisions to travel abroad.
Kasikorn Research Centre is a subsidiary company of Kasikorn Bank, which conducts tourism and business research mainly on Thailand’s economy including tourism with reliable recommendations and indicators on business prospects.

Sourced: ttrweekly