Yuan, pollution and visas: elements to China tourism decline

BANGKOK - Foreign tourists are today thinking twice before to decide to take a trip to China. Despite its wealth of amazing natural and historical attractions, a 2,000 year old culture, great gastronomy and mostly friendly people, China does not anymore attract travellers. They are three main factors to explain the phenomenon: two are relying on the country’s economic development but the third one depends exclusively of government’s good will. In 2013, statistics from the CNTA –China National Tourism Administration- points out that China PRC welcomed an impressive 129.07 million tourist arrivals. The number is however down by 2.5% compared to 2012. It looks like a relative modest drop. But in real numbers, this translate by the disappearance of 4.5 million visitors in just one year (see table below)! Even more worrying is the trend from overseas travellers –excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. The negative trend is accelerating at -3.3%, representing the vanishing of a million travellers between 2012 and 2013 for a total of 26.3 million. The real statistic benchmark is however tourists spending at least one overnight in the country: this segment saw in 2013 a drop of 3.5% last year, representing only 55.7 million arrivals against 57.7 million a year before; foreign arrivals are down by 5.2% to 20.8 million instead of almost 22 million in 2012. And 2012 was already stagnant compared to 2011. For many neighbouring countries, there is first of all the rising value of the Chinese Yuan. Between 2011 and 2014, the Yuan appreciated by 9%. In January 2014, the Yuan was quoted at 6.05 for a dollar compared to 6.59 in January 2011, 6.32 in January 2012 and 6.22 in January 2013. It particularly affected countries such as Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia or India which although experienced in 2013 a decline in their own currencies. In 2013, the Japanese market literally collapsed, down by 18%. The Yen/Yuan parity but above all political acrimonies between both countries explain the drop in Japanese travellers. Political tensions are also behind a decline in total arrivals from South Korea, down by 2.5% last year. A second phenomenon is the concern of travellers when looking at news related to rising pollution levels in Chinese cities. In 2012, 2013 and earlier this year, they have been news and pictures showing large Chinese cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou or Shanghai blanketed by smog due to pollution. Earlier this year, the Ministry for Environmental Protection acknowledged that most Chinese cities did not meet environmental criteria. “The vast majority of Chinese cities monitored for pollution fail to meet Beijing-set standards”, China’s vice-minister of environmental protection says. In 2013, 71 cities over 74 did not meet state environmental standards due to mostly excessive coal-burning in the industry. The World Health Organization recommends (Particulate Matter) PM 2.5 concentrations of no more than 25 micrograms per cubic meter. Pollution in Beijing first exceeded the maximum levels of the Air Quality Index (AQI) (launched in 2008 by the US Embassy in Beijing) in late 2010, topping 500 micrograms. It since reached even over 800 micrograms that milestone has been surpassed many times since, and by early 2013 reached well over 800. Some cities in Northern China even reached a level of over 1,000 late last year. This represents an increasing source of concern for travellers. Last year, Beijing recorded 46 smoggy days in the first 100 days of 2013, setting a new 60-year record. Beijing Statistics Bureau revealed that Beijing's inbound tourist turnover decreased by 27.5 % in 2013. In Shanghai, the Muncipal Statistical Bureau mentioned a decline of 5% of its overseas travellers. And then comes the government factor with visas. Despite claiming to welcome broadly travellers from all over the world, China has been tightening the rules for visa for most nationalities. Long waiting time, a high number of documents and, at the end, expensive visa fees are probably major deterrent to endorse a trip to China for many. The government introduction of a free visa stay for travellers in transit for 72 hours has so far failed to produce impressive results. Travellers can only benefit from the measure if they fly to a third country as the one of original departure. Fortunately the inclusion of Hong Kong and Macao in overseas destination brings some kind of flexibility. A visa waiver program for short stay could be the best factor to boost again tourist arrivals, especially as it would allow last minute visits –for example for week-enders staying in Asia. It will however request from Chinese authorities to abandon their vision of a traveller being mostly a potential danger to the country’s safety. Security is of course a primary concern for any country around the world. While technology progress today helps monitoring more efficiently than ever the movements of travellers, it is paradoxical that suspicion is still the high value as soon as tourism is involved. China inbound tourism seems to pay the price for it now.

Sourced: TravelDailyNews