Chinese trips will not recover this year

BANGKOK Kasikorn Research Centre estimates Chinese tourists visiting Thailand will drop 11.6% to 4.1 million visits by year-end.
The forecast does not come as a surprise. The market has been in decline since the last quarter of 2013.
During the second quarter of this year arrivals sank 29.1% and that has been the trend ever since.
“The decrease is partly due to a military coup, martial law and a curfew in May which caused the decline to reach 41.4% in June,” the bank reported.
But the blame should not be placed entirely at the door of the military or political antagonists. China introduced tough consumer laws in late 2013 that governed what tour operators could include in a tour package. The confusion over the rules and the threat of heavy fines, slowed tourism to all destinations in Asia.
There are positive factors at play now that should see the negative drift reversed, but it will not be enough to give the country a positive figure for 2014 from the Chinese market.
The bank said travel should increase during the Chinese Gloden Week (1 to 10 October). Visa fee examption will encourage more Chinese and Taiwanese tourists to travel before 8 November when the concession ends. There are also signs that promotions in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, and Kunming are driving more bookings for Thailand.
The centre therefore estimated that the year will close with 4.1 million visits, a decrease of 11.6% with revenue around THB160,000 million, down 15.3% from last year.
But the trade should worry, too , about other outside factors the bank warns. It cited rising fuel costs, chaos in the Middle East, the Ebola virus crisis and the ever present threat of terrorism. Also, there remains concern about China’s tour law and the impact that has on the sale of cheap tours mainly bought by first-time travellers. Thailand has always faired well in China’s first-time traveller segment.
Kasikorn Research Centre is a subsidiary company of Kasikorn Bank, which conducts tourism and business research mainly on Thailand’s economy including tourism with reliable recommendations and indicators on business prospects.

sourced:ttrweekly.com