Bank warns of Brexit fallout

BANGKOK Kasikorn Research Centre says tourist arrivals from Europe should continue to grow this year, although the fallout from Brexit and the impact on the UK pound could dampen overseas travel from Britain.

The bank think-tank unit said that during the second half of this year, travel from Europe with the exception of the United Kingdom would grow despite Euro weakness.

“Markets like Germany and France will expand while Sweden and Denmark have recovered resulting in more trips to Thailand.”

For the entire year, tourist arrivals from Europe (excluding the UK) should reach 3.72 to 3.75 million, an increase of 7.6% to 8.5%, compared with a growth of 4.7% last year. The market should generate around THB265 billion to THB266 billion.

Meanwhile, the post-Brexit situation still need monitoring as there are signs of weakness in the UK economy and the buying power of the UK pound is down.

However, the bank’s research centre said the UK market would continue to increase this year. It projects 985,000 to 996,000 visits, an increasing of 4.0% to 5.2% from a 4.3% growth last year. The market would circulate THB70,100 to THB71,500 million in tourism revenue. This marginally down on earlier predictions that suggested the UK market would exceed 1 million visits this year.

Instability in Europe may encourage European travellers to shift destinations and travel to outside of the region, the centre said.

“Thai tour operators should offer attractive promotions to attract European travellers who have not yet decided their travel arrangements for the last quarter.”

The centre recommended that “hotels and airlines should closely monitor post Brexit impact to adjust business strategies particularly marketing plans …operators could shift the emphasis to the Scandinavian market to balance their business.”

Kasikorn Research Centre is a subsidiary company of Kasikorn Bank, which conducts tourism and business research mainly on Thailand’s economy including tourism with reliable recommendations and indicators on business prospects.