Tourism potential

As per experts, accurate long-term forecast of travel trade is an almost impossible task, due to uncertain variables in the complex network of travel flows. However, the combination of data from the past years and expert opinions give reasonably accurate short-to-medium-term forecasts, which could be successfully used in business planning of travel trade and aviation industry.

World-wide tourist arrivals increased by an average of 4 per cent annually between 1997 to 2008, whereas in the same period the figure is 7.9 per cent in South Asia region and 11 per cent in the Middle East region. In the case of Nepal, although tourist arrivals grew by only less than 3 per cent during that period, the good news is that a growth rate of 8 per cent was achieved between the year 2004 and 2008. World-wide earnings from tourism business reached a staggering figure of USD 944 billion in the year 2008, which is more than double the amount of USD 443 billion in the year 1997.

As per world-wide statistics for the year 2008, the highest number of tourists (79.3 million) entered France, followed by 58 million to USA and 57.3 million to Spain. In that year, USA, Spain and France earned USD 110 billion, 61.6 billion and 55.6 billion respectively from tourism trade. Closer to home, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Cambodia earned USD 16.2 billion, 15 billion, 10.5 billion, and 1.5 billion respectively in the same year. These figures clearly show that tourism could be a good foreign currency earning sector for countries like Nepal, with great tourism potential. In the year 2008, Nepal managed to earn merely USD 352 million from the tourism sector.

Tourism experts opine that two main factors which influence the destination-choosing decision of an average potential tourist from any part of the world are the destination price and air travel costs. The destination price mostly influence short-haul markets, while air travel cost matters most for those coming through long-haul air routes. As a wide range of choice for accommodation and eating places from lodges and cheap food-joints to five star hotels is available in Nepal.

Destination price normally is not a big constraint for tourists coming to Nepal. But, one often has to face complaints from Kathmandu-based diplomats and expatriates as well as tourists is the unusually high cost of air travel to Nepal, compared to countries like India, Bangladesh, Singapore, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and China.

According to tourism experts, the majority of travelers desire to travel non-stop to their destination, and this has prompted many airlines to purchase more and more twin-aisle wide body aircraft. That seems to be justified as per the requirement.

Statistics show that among the world’s top ten tourism spenders (with highest number of citizens going abroad), seven countries are from Europe and North America, while the rest of the three countries are Japan, Russia and China. A simple check in the Internet will prove that for travelers from those ten countries, which could be considered as top ten centers of gravity of tourists in the world, one of the most expensive tourist destinations is Nepal, due to the very high air travel cost. No wonder, as per 2008 data, only 37 per cent (184,736) visitors came to Nepal from those 10 countries. It is a matter of common sense that tourist inflow to Nepal from those ten countries can be increased substantially only if air travel is made cheaper by forceful market intervention by the national flag carrier.

Nepal Airlines Corporation (NAC) in the existing “monopoly” market enjoyed by foreign airlines coming to Tribhuvan International Airport (TIA), the only international airport in the country. This exactly is the reason why Nepalese travel trade industry stalwarts are repeatedly requesting the Government of Nepal to strengthen national flag carrier by acquiring new aircraft to expand its wings to facilitate lowering of artificially increased air travel costs for Nepal-destination routes.

The entire travel trade industry of Nepal is unanimous in the view that Nepal can be considered as one of the world’s brightest spots in tourism growth. But, double digit growth in tourist arrivals will be possible, only if airfare to Nepal come down substantially to the level of similar popular destinations around the world. More and more countries with tourism potential are realizing that they have to strengthen national flag carriers to increase tourist arrivals. Due to this realization, it is forecast that Asia-Pacific Region will have the largest increase in fleet size, increasing at the rate of 300 to 400 additional aircraft per annum in the next 10 years.

The economy of the country is in dire straits, with grim hope of growth of any export-oriented industries. The possible earnings from surplus power from ‘tremendous’ potential of hydro-power generation has almost become a mirage only.

The quickest, easiest and least investment solution for earning foreign currency is the tourism industry. The sooner our policy-makers realize this, the better it is for fast socio-economic development of the country.

Source = thehimalayantimes