Decline in international tourism to rebound in 2010

International tourism is set to improve, the latest edition of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer forecasting that the decline has started to bottom out.

Between January and August this year, international tourist arrivals fell 7 percent. But in recent months the rate of decline has eased, aligning with UNWTO?s initial forecast of a 5 percent decline for the full year.

Confidence is also improving, the latest UNWTO Confidence Index showing the percentage of experts with a negative outlook for the next four months falling from 62 percent to 42 percent. Forecasts are ?equal? for 30 percent of experts and ?better? or ?much better? for 28 percent.

But recovering arrivals and confidence have not helped tourism earnings, international tourism receipts contracting 9-10 percent in the first six months of the year, 1 to 2 percentage points below arrivals.

Regionally, the majority are showing reversal and improvement with the exception of the Americas. The region has recorded a 7 percent decline for the first half and has continued to be fairly negative during the second quarter as well as in the months of July and August according to UNWTO.

UNWTO said it expected the decline in arrivals to bottom out by the end of the year, with the full year forecast for international tourist arrivals still between negative 6 to 4 percent.

For 2010, international tourist arrivals are expected to move into positive territory, forecast to grow 1 to 3 percent, Asia recovering the strongest while Europe and the Americas are expected to take longer.

?Seldom in recorded tourism history has the industry had to contend with so many different issues at the same time? said UNWTO Secretary-General a.i. Taleb Rifai referring to the economic crisis, unemployment and the influenza pandemic.

?However, the negative trend that emerged during the second half of 2008 and intensified in 2009 is starting to show signs of receding?

Sourced = The e Travel Blackboard